IV. Major risks encountering
Over-dependence on China
On March 30
2014, up to half a million Taiwanese marched to protest against the
passage of the Cross-Strait Service Pact with China, citing an unlawful
approval process and the agreement’s potential overarching impact on national
security. Becoming too dependent on China may have disastrous economic and
political consequences for Taiwan.
Free trade and foreign investment are undoubtedly
crucial to economic growth and a nation’s wellbeing, especially for a country
like Taiwan, which relies heavily on trade. However, free trade is no longer
the sole consideration when your trading partner poses a clear national security threat. The Ma administration’s policies
conveniently neglect the consequences of “locking” Taiwan’s economy with the
very source of the main security threat facing Taiwan. Ma claims that the
Service Trade Pact will boost Taiwan’s economy by allowing Taiwanese companies
to leverage the potential of Chinese markets through the lifting of trade and
direct investment restrictions. However, this cuts both ways. The government
has to bear in mind that the agreement would also expose Taiwan to its rival
across the strait — a major concern that drove the people to the streets on
March 30, and a concern that has been weakly addressed by the government since
then.
In 2013, 62
percent of approved overseas investment and 39 percent of Taiwan’s exports went
to China. The reliance of Taiwan’s economy on China is already
disproportionate. The potential of a “hard landing” for China’s overheating
economy, which already shows the signs of decelerating investment, could
overwhelmingly impact Taiwan’s industries. Meanwhile, China’s ability to change
laws and policies in an opaque fashion with little notice and possibility for redress
adds another layer of risk. The recent examples — banning SOEs from hiring
foreign consulting firms and prohibiting government purchases of Microsoft’s
newest operating system — reveal the risks all foreign companies face when
investing in China. As Taiwan continues to tie its economy more closely to
China, unexpected new trade and investment policies from Beijing could pull the
rug out from under Taiwan’s economy.
Recommendations-Over-dependence on China
Taiwan may actively seek to participate in regional
and global economic integration, increase the added value ratio of industrial
sectors and upgrade the international competitiveness of Taiwanese enterprises.
Taiwan’s market share in China to rise at the same
time as a decline occurs in the proportion of Taiwan’s exports accounted for by
cross-Strait sales. Though difficult, achieving that ideal is considered
possible by trade experts – but only if Taiwan can make the transition to
producing and exporting finished products with a strong brand image. Possessing
that strength in finished products would make Taiwan less vulnerable to China's
localization process.
It would also enable Taiwan to assert itself on the
international stage to many markets, not just China – and such diversification
would cause the percentage of Taiwan’s exports going to China to diminish. At
the same time, if Taiwan has stronger brands it would be in a position to sell
more to China at the expense of competing products from Korea and Japan,
enabling Taiwan to achieve the dual goals of a higher market share on the
mainland even while China accounts for a lower proportion of Taiwan's exports.
It
would therefore be possible for Taiwan to be less trade-dependent on China and
more competitive in the China market at the same time.
Higher electricity costs
Taiwanese manufacturers may have to shoulder higher
electricity costs after the government announced it would stop construction on
a new nuclear power plant.
Taiwan's
three nuclear plants, altogether six reactors, are supplying nearly one-fifth
of the island's electricity. When they are phased out by 2025 as planned and
without a fourth plant to fill the energy gap, domestic power prices will have
to rise by at least 40% to subsidize
more expensive alternatives such as natural gas, solar and wind, Economics
Minister Chang Chia-juch said.
Graph 1
Taiwan Power Company has already spent TWD 330
billion ($11 billion) building the fourth nuclear plant – one of the reactors
is already finished – and it would have to write off the asset completely if
the project were cancelled.
Tuntono calculates that the government could be forced to inject up to TWD 540 billion ($18
billion), or 3.7 percent of GDP, simply to keep the utility solvent. The
government would likely have to float bonds to cover the expenditure, which is
equivalent to one-fifth of annual government spending. That would increase the
general government debt 3.7 percentage points to 46.1 percent of GDP, bringing
the total public debt at all levels of government very close to the statutory
limit of 50 percent.
Higher
power prices would also hurt corporate earnings. Steel manufacturers would be
among the hardest-hit, with an earnings hit of as much as 5 percent for each 10
percent increase in electricity prices. Finally, buying fossil fuels to cover
Taiwan’s energy needs would increase total imports by $4.8 billion, or 27
percent, thereby slashing the island’s $57 billion current account surplus by
8.3 percent. That, in turn, would put
pressure on the Taiwanese dollar.
Recommendation- Higher electricity costs
ü
Emulate Germany’s push into the green economy
Graph 2
That’s been the talk for several years, and
President Ma Ying-jeou put green tech at the fore of his agenda early in his
presidency. Ma vowed to put Taiwan on the path towards sustainability,
promising huge reductions in carbon emissions while pushing green technologies
that would open up new markets for Taiwan’s high-tech sector. Taiwan now has
the world’s second largest solar cell manufacturing and LED industries and has
staked significant market shares in energy storage and electric vehicles. In
2010, Taiwan was ranked second in Asia, sixth in the world for contributing to
Green Economy by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD).
Taiwan has become a heavyweight in exporting green
technology, it has lagged in renewable energy deployment at home. In 2013, the
country had around 8% of installed power generating capacity in renewables,
generating some 4% of its energy.
Taiwan may extend the life of the three existing
nuclear plants and develop more comprehensive green technologies to generate
electricity. So as to stabilize the price of electricity.
Reference:
Graph 1: https://www.thefinancialist.com/the-economic-consequences-of-de-nuclearization/
Graph 2:http://www.amcham.com.tw/connect/taiwans-renewable-energy-challenge/